My Memberships

What Determines the ‘Bet Strength’?

To summarise a longer process of establishing strong betting opportunities – I create my own horse racing cards using information from my horse racing contacts to identify positive ‘Expected Value’ bets.

Strong information and comprehensive analysis is used to identify Positive ‘Expected Value’ Bets.

Positive Expected Value (+EV) – horses where the odds are greater than what the odds should be based on information I have received

Horse Racing Tips sent to members combine information from my extensive contacts with a thorough anaysis of every race to establish strong betting opportunities – ‘Positive Expected Values (EV’s)‘.

Poistive Expected Value’s are runners I deem will make a healthy Return On Investment (ROI) over time.

Positive Expected Values (+EV’s)

I create my own horse racing ‘books’ based on information I receive and races I am interested in.

As an example, I receive strong information for a runner that is available at 2/1 and negative information for another runner in the same race. I adjust the odds on the runners accordingly and I believe the 2/1 runner will win the race 50% of the time (even money).

If you are getting 2/1 about a runner that is 1/1 then you are well advised to have a bet.

Here’s the maths for a 1 point win bet:

win outcome – loss outcome = Expected Value

so:

(profit * probability of winning) – (losses * probability of losing) = Expected Value

In our example we have the following figures:

DataValueNotes
profit if winning2 pointsbased on 2/1 odds
probability of winning0.550% based on adjusted book
losses if losing1 pointinitial stake if selection loses
probability of losing0.550% based on adjusted book

So here is the Expected Value for a runner at 2/1 that wins 50% of the time:

(2 * 0.5) – (1 * 0.5) = 0.5

For every £1 staked the Expected Value (0.5) would be a £0.50 profit

Any runner that has a +EV is a good bet – a runner that has an Expected Value of 0.5 is a 10 point MAX bet

Expected Value \ Bet Strengths:

Here is the guide I use to determine Bet Strengths based on Expected Values:

Expected ValueBet Strength
< 0.091 Point
0.1 – 0.192 Points
0.2 – 0.293 Points
0.3 – 0.394 Points
0.4 – 0.495 Points
0.5 <10 Points

The stronger I deem the ROI to be – the stronger the points I advise… I have 6 different types of Bet Strength:

Inside Track Bets are advised with a 1 to 5 point scale…

Bet Strength
1 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<
Bet Strength
2 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<
Bet Strength
3 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<
Bet Strength
4 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<
Bet Strength
5 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<

Insider Alerts are 10 point MAX bets…

Bet Strength
10 Point Win Bet
Expected Value
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5<

Thing to Consider When Placing Bets

I download odds from bet365 so when I send my tips the odds are guaranteed to be available with bet365. My emails also allow you to add the selection directly to your bet365 betslip for added convenience.

How To Get On My Tips in Under 60 Seconds…

Time needed: 1 minute.

Guaranteed Odds when backing my tips

  1. I add a new horse racing tip to the Live Tips page

    The countdown is on…

  2. Members Instantly Receive Email Notifications

    There is almost zero delay in emails being sent

  3. All Emailed Tips contain ‘Add To Betslip’ for the selection

    currently only bet365 is supported

  4. Click ‘Add To Betslip’ and decide on your stake

    Choose your own stake or follow my advised stakes

  5. Bet Placed

    Your bet is on in as little as 60 seconds

Betfair Vs Bet365

On the face of it, Betfair seems like a great proposition – however there are 2 reasons that a traditional bookmaker such as bet365 with Best Odds Guaranteed is a better option.

Betfair has very little early market liquidity – particularly for many smaller races where there are often great opportunities – so it’s often just not possible to get on.

I have analysed the difference in placing bets at 10.30am with Best Odds Guaranteed against placing bets 2 minutes before the scheduled off time on Betfair and statistically bet365 with Best Odds Guaranteed is worth as much as 12% on your return – that’s huge!

You regularly get the bigger price earlier in the day (like at 10.30am when I send my Inside Track tips) but should the selection drift in the betting you also get the larger price later in the day – you are giving yourself 2 chances to get the bigger price.

To take advantage of Best Odds Guaranteed and use the ‘Add To Betslip’ functionality in my tipping emails make sure you have an active bet365 account