To summarise a longer process of establishing strong betting opportunities – I create my own horse racing cards using information from my horse racing contacts to identify positive ‘Expected Value’ bets.
Horse Racing Tips sent to members combine information from my extensive contacts with a thorough anaysis of every race to establish strong betting opportunities – ‘Positive Expected Values (EV’s)‘.
Poistive Expected Value’s are runners I deem will make a healthy Return On Investment (ROI) over time.
Positive Expected Values (+EV’s)
As an example, I receive strong information for a runner that is available at 2/1 and negative information for another runner in the same race. I adjust the odds on the runners accordingly and I believe the 2/1 runner will win the race 50% of the time (even money).
Here’s the maths for a 1 point win bet:
win outcome – loss outcome = Expected Value
(profit * probability of winning) – (losses * probability of losing) = Expected Value
In our example we have the following figures:
|profit if winning||2 points||based on 2/1 odds|
|probability of winning||0.5||50% based on adjusted book|
|losses if losing||1 point||initial stake if selection loses|
|probability of losing||0.5||50% based on adjusted book|
So here is the Expected Value for a runner at 2/1 that wins 50% of the time:
(2 * 0.5) – (1 * 0.5) = 0.5
For every £1 staked the Expected Value (0.5) would be a £0.50 profit
Expected Value \ Bet Strengths:
Here is the guide I use to determine Bet Strengths based on Expected Values:
|Expected Value||Bet Strength|
|< 0.09||1 Point|
|0.1 – 0.19||2 Points|
|0.2 – 0.29||3 Points|
|0.3 – 0.39||4 Points|
|0.4 – 0.49||5 Points|
|0.5 <||10 Points|
Inside Track Bets are advised with a 1 to 5 point scale…
Insider Alerts are 10 point MAX bets…
Thing to Consider When Placing Bets
How To Get On My Tips in Under 60 Seconds…
Time needed: 1 minute.
Guaranteed Odds when backing my tips
- I add a new horse racing tip to the Live Tips page
The countdown is on…
- Members Instantly Receive Email Notifications
There is almost zero delay in emails being sent
- All Emailed Tips contain ‘Add To Betslip’ for the selection
currently only bet365 is supported
- Click ‘Add To Betslip’ and decide on your stake
Choose your own stake or follow my advised stakes
- Bet Placed
Your bet is on in as little as 60 seconds
Betfair Vs Bet365
On the face of it, Betfair seems like a great proposition – however there are 2 reasons that a traditional bookmaker such as bet365 with Best Odds Guaranteed is a better option.
Betfair has very little early market liquidity – particularly for many smaller races where there are often great opportunities – so it’s often just not possible to get on.
I have analysed the difference in placing bets at 10.30am with Best Odds Guaranteed against placing bets 2 minutes before the scheduled off time on Betfair and statistically bet365 with Best Odds Guaranteed is worth as much as 12% on your return – that’s huge!
You regularly get the bigger price earlier in the day (like at 10.30am when I send my Inside Track tips) but should the selection drift in the betting you also get the larger price later in the day – you are giving yourself 2 chances to get the bigger price.