I receive extensive information on a daily basis that comes from a network of contacts at the heart of UK horse racing that allows me to create my own ‘Marked Horse Racing Cards’…
It is information I log in my own private database (even if it’s a horse that’s not running). It is something I place immense value on and is essentially the backbone of my service and it can make a big difference to your chances of winning…
Useful Information Entered into my own private Horse Racing Cards
The only rule when it comes to ‘information’ is whether it is credible and genuinely connected to the horse or yard – this is obviously easier with established relationships and yards where I have horses in training.
Information comes in lots of shapes and sizes:
- Handicap blots – lots of weight in hand
- Massive Improvers – significant improvement in homework
- Horses with Previous Excuses – such as ground, trip, conditions, etc.
- Horses Expected to ‘Come on for the run’ – previously not 100% fit
- 2 Year-Olds & Maidens\Novices – horses with no form
- Well Regarded Horses – potentially Group runners\improvers in waiting
- Physical conditions – horses susceptible to bleeding, wind issues, etc.
- Physical Characteristics – action, size, scope, jumping ability, etc.
- Homework – how are horses performing in training
- Miscellaneous notes – whatever I hear and I make note of…
Declarations – when a horse is entered for a race – generally occur as follows; with some exceptions:
- Flat Racing – 48 hours before day of race
- National Hunt – 24 hours before day of race
- Group \ Ante-Post – varying entry stages well in advance of a race
At which point a whole array of additional information becomes available for each race including the other runners, form, draw (flat racing), ground, weights, jockeys, etc.
Now we know the runners and have a good idea of the conditions for a race…
For the most part – a mistake many people make is failing to use information ‘in context’ with the rest of the field.
A horse with ’10lbs’ in hand is only going to win if not bumping into a horse with ’15lbs’ in hand.
Nathaniel was gambled from 7/1 into 3/1 on debut and beaten into 2nd – by Frankel who drifted from 11/8 to a 7/4 SP (the only time Frankel ever returned at an odds against price).
In either of these scenarios backing any of these 4 horses, whether it be Frankel or Nathaniel on debut or horses in handicaps with 10 to 15lbs in hand is going to have a positive ‘Expected Value‘ regardless of whether they win or lose – more on ‘Expected Value’ later – it’s important!
I receive a lot of positive information – however in many cases ‘information’ is geared towards horses that are less likely to win than their respective odds – it is essentially ‘negative’ information.
I have spoken to a trainer of mine previously with an odds on runner in a race and enquired about the runner in question. The response was:
‘I couldn’t even back it at double figure prices in these conditions. The owners had already arranged their day out and told me to run it anyway’.
The horse that had stamina questions to answer was pulled up – but would subsequently win over a shorter trip on better ground at a bigger price next time out.
So there is a mixture of ‘Positive‘ and ‘Negative‘ information that all needs to be analysed in the context of the exact circumstances of the race.
As I maintain extensive information and notes on horses and use alerts to keep notified of their entries it is not uncommon for me to review a horse racing card and I have information on most of the field – some negative and some positive.
So by the time I come to review a days horse racing cards and potential betting opportunities I have already completed a lot of the work and have ‘Marked Cards‘ ready to go.
I then look at each race for potential opportunities and then ‘create my own book‘ assigning my own odds to each runner based on what I have calculated their actual chance to be.
This is an important step in establishing the ‘Expected Value‘…